Industrial Emergency ( Part II)

Hassnain Javed

JANUARY 5, 2020

Subsequently, countries like Pakistan should explore new development strategies that minimize the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to accomplish clean growth. In the Pakistani context, the current growth pattern is not only unsustainable but also inefficient. Pakistan suffers from numerous socio-economic problems due to the country’s low productivity rate. This weak productivity is caused by the low domestic and foreign direct investment, lack of export and high unemployment rate that accelerates the internal migration. Thus, for solving all these socio-economic challenges, it is essential to set out a national strategy for the sustainable development in mega projects that can tackle all these circumstances without deteriorating surrounding environment, and Gilgit Baltistan development is one of these projects. This is extensively indispensable for the prosperity of not only the Gilgit Baltistan area but also for the Pakistan economy. Supporting the sustainable development in the Gilgit Baltistan economic zone is the efficient way to battle various macroeconomic challenges that hinder the country’s development without polluting the environment.

As per the Asian development bank, the success of the special economic zone depends on two factors: the extent to which these economic zones are linked with the whole economy, and the capability of the economic zone to support the economic transformation from a manufacturing basis to technological innovation

It is estimated that the projects that will be established in the Gilgit Baltistan economic zone are supposed to generate billion dollars annually once they are complete. Globally, special economic zones (SEZs) have become an integral instrument to enhance the country’s economic development. Per the World Bank, the establishment of a special economic zone in developing countries is a useful path to achieve the country’s inclusive green growth. These zones contribute directly to achieve the following: increasing the foreign exchange earnings; magnifying the country exports; integrating host country to the global markets; increasing the government revenues; increasing the technological knowledge transfer; and reducing unemployment. The Asian Development Bank, claimed that SEZs played a significant role to support the trade and investments during the economic recession in some countries. However, others skeptic doubted that SEZs have a positive significant impact on the host country as it has presented in the literature. Hence, assessing the impact of all the current sorts of special economic zones in the Gilgit Baltistan region is a necessity to hypothesize the extent to which these economic zones can achieve their objectives in Pakistan, and what are the major changes that are required to expand Gilgit Baltistan special economic zone successfully. Inside the Gilgit Baltistan special economic zones, the government should aim to attract more investments, which means stimulating more job opportunities for local and technological advancement for domestic industrial development. Meanwhile, the government should foster other economic activities outside the zone through generating synergies that encourage backwards and forward linkages with the whole economy. This means that Gilgit Baltistan special economic zones under certain measurements could be the instrument that helps the country to stimulate economic growth inside and outside the economic zone. As per the Asian development bank, the success of the special economic zone depends on two factors: the extent to which these economic zones are linked with the whole economy, and the capability of the economic zone to support the economic transformation from a manufacturing basis to technological innovation.

In order to conclude, Pakistan has everything going for it at the moment, and has the world’s attention firmly focused on it. With the government’s stated aims of promoting manufacturing, creating new jobs, upskilling the workforce, and fostering entrepreneurship and by declaring industrial emergency it makes sense that if SEZs are established they will act as stimulus for economic development. As a critical tool for the promotion of manufacturing and exports, SEZs have made a difference historically and is expected to reap extraordinary outcomes if executed in Pakistan. Moreover, it can also make a real difference in achieving all of the other key objectives of the government while encouraging ‘startupreneuships’ which is among the key goals of the current government.

The writer is Advisor (PITAC, Lahore operated under Federal Ministry of Industries and Production, Islamabad) and Foreign Research Associate (Centre of Excellence, CPEC, Islamabad)

Single national curriculum: All hat and no cattle

Single national curriculum: All hat and no cattle

Dr. Hassnain Javed

AUGUST 26, 2020

The Federal Minister for Education and Professional Training Shafqat Mehmood’s statement, “we have attempted to define a curriculum which is outcome based, to create a more fair system” appears vapid when juxtaposed against A.H Nayyar’s assertion that Single National Curriculum (SNC) confirms that educational policy makers continue to have a skewed belief in what constitutes quality education.

PTI’s Naya Pakistan promised an end of education apartheid by bringing a uniform curriculum in the country. After 18 months of tiring consultative process what it achieves left most educationists disgruntled.

The SNC that has been approved so far presents curriculum for grades I-V but its flaws are already becoming apparent. The biggest concern so far has been around government’s move to bring the madrasa to public and private schools. The manner in which religious studies are made part of SNC, it reminds of 1980s controversial imported American Curriculum of Talibanisation.

Post 9/11 scenario brought Madrassas under criticism as the main sources of fundamentalism and militancy in Pakistan. Generally, they propagated a myopic and militant version of Islam.

Under International pressure, efforts were made to bring all madrassas into the mainstream of Pakistani society with mandatory registration and course offerings in english, mathematics, science and business studies. Students who completed these courses were given certificates equivalent to public school after ten years of education. The move was initiated to blunt the potential temptation to militancy and provide future employment opportunities.

In 2017 PTI’s provincial government in Khyber Pashtunkhwa gifted a huge grant of $2.7 millions in public funds to Akora Khattak madrassa of a man who proclaimed himself as “the father of Taliban”. The decision was criticised widely as an act of supporting extremist elements and dishonoring the martyrs of December 2014, militant attack in APS Peshawar.

Most of the educationists fear that PM Imran Khan’s inclination toward madrasas might lead this country into an era of the dark ages. The greater dose of religious education offered in SNC would be a death kneel of critical thinking and reasoning in schools. According to the arrangement worked out in the SNC, the madrasa teachers will get jobs in schools which would give them huge influence over young minds.

These fears aren’t baseless, in recent years multiple incidents have been reported involving violence against teachers and students with moderate and progressive views. Lynching of Mashal Khan and muder of a professor in Bahawalpur for merely organising a farewell party speaks volumes that our syllabus and narrative need to change. We need teachers in schools that do not propagate hatred and contaminate mind of our children.

It is problematic how naive madrasa teachers portray Islam as opposing science and reasons. They spread their faulty understandings of religion to confuse students. Few months back, Maulana Imran Attari on Madni TV told his young students that the Earth is stationary while the student argued that their Geography syllabus told them otherwise. It is expected that similar type of confusions would arise if we put future of our youth in such hands.

Moreover public/private schools provide employment opportunities for females. It is still unclear how they would react to SNC latest decision, would they feel comfortable teaching liberal subjects? How would school administration strike a balance between opposing viewpoints of modern versus religious ideas.

Paulo Freire in his book,” Pedagogy of the Oppressed” states that the tragic dilemma of the oppressed which their education must take into account is presence of duality, they internalise the consciousness of the oppressor. This is exactly what we witness in this SNC, under an illusion to reform madrasa, in reality we are turning schools into seminaries.

Pakistan has the youngest population in the South Asia almost 64% are below 30. Yet we are worst performers in terms of technical and vocational education and training

What history taught us over time is that our best hope for bringing a new wave of progres lies only if we invest in the future of our youth and make them responsible for the success of our economy. A Chinese proverb says,

“if you plan for a year, plant corn. If you plan for a decade, plant a tree. But if you plan for a life, train people.

Pakistan has the youngest population in the South Asia almost 64% are below 30. Yet we are worst performers in terms of technical and vocational education and training. Unfortunately, SNC doesnot focus on providing an effective development and implementation strategy to harness its young potential. It stays silent on initiating a school vocational training programmes to ensure practical skills training at school level.

We talk to make CPEC a success but we can only reap its maximum benefits if we connect the world of learning with work and equip our youth with requirements of the digital age and instill capabilities required to do them. Such initiatives will increase the earning capacity, decrease unemployment and contribute to poverty reduction.

In the end I would appreciate an honest assertion of Dr Maryam Chughtai that in a parliamentary system one cannot neglect the demand of all political parties to teach Nazrah Quran to Muslim students. She acknowledged that as a policy maker, her personal take on issues take a backseat when constitutional restraints and majoritarian democracy takes over. But I consider it an intellectual corruption when scholars of her stature can’t ratiocinate the consequences of their decision. Sadly, an elite class of Harvard alumni i.e Shafqat Mehmood and Maryam Chughtai have turned a Nelson’s eye to the festering issue of Education in Pakistan.

The author is Special Advisor (Pakistan Institute of Management, Lahore operated under Federal Ministry of Industries and Production, Islamabad) and Foreign Research Associate (Centre of Excellence, China Pakistan Economic Corridor, Islamabad)

Budget 2020-2021: Reality Check (Part II)

Budget 2020-2021: Reality Check (Part II)

Hassnain Javed

June 26, 2020

 

Moreover, the manufacturing sector will grow by 0.7% whereas the service sector will grow by 2.6%. The service sector can only grow if there is more growth in the manufacturing sector otherwise it will experience a trickle-down effect. For instance, if farmers do not have a higher yield and farm productivity, he will never plan to spend on tourism or avail other services. If the farmer has an output equivalent to its given inputs or slightly higher he will primarily focus on the necessities to be fulfilled rather than sending his children to urban cities for higher education instead will ask his children to stay in the village and attain the education. In crux, if there is lower growth in the manufacturing sector then technically the service sector cannot flourish. Also, the government employees do the major chunk of spending whereas in the coming fiscal year they have a 14% cut in their regular pay. Thus, they will also not contribute much to the service sector. However, the tourism sector is open amid COVID19 probably it can generate some pennies but realistically cannot provide cushion to higher growth in the service sector.

According to an Economic Survey of Pakistan, the public sector enterprises primarily; Pakistan Steel Mills, Pakistan International Airlines, Pakistan Railways, and other 34 public sector enterprises annually gallop approximately Rs.1150 billion. In contrast, as per the government spokesperson presenting budget said there is an Rs.1300 billion deficit. I wonder where Rs.150 billion deficit will get adjusted. However, the ruling government proclaimed to bring betterment indeed efficient management system and target towards self-sustainability in the existing public sector enterprises with the help of 200 technical expert teams. The Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) Chairman frequently visits the concerned Minister and Prime Minister for the monthly deficit amounting to Rs.6 billion. Although, there was a hefty reception of PIA.

Pakistan is under hot waters and it requires the immediate and appropriate actions to be undertaken to get Pakistan out of the macro and microeconomic imbalances

Besides this, the Finance Minister during a seminar held in Islamabad in January 2020 stated that Pakistan has to repay Rs.3500 billion interest on loans whereas the government spokesperson-presenting budget said Pakistan has paid off Rs.5000 billion interest on loans in the fiscal year 2019-2020. As we can see, there is a straight difference between Rs.1500 billion. Interestingly, right after the budget presentation, the Finance Minister told the media that Pakistan has paid of Rs.2900 billion interest on loans for the fiscal year 2019-2020. Therefore, it is difficult to understand either Rs.3500 billion, Rs.5000 billion, or either Rs.2900 billion is the right statement. There is another misstatement during the budget that the existing government has taken the economy out from B3 negative to B3 positive although the scenario was different. The economy experienced negative B3 growth due to the current policies and B3 negative growth does not turn into positive directly it first requires getting neutral and then translating into growth. If we have a glance at Moody’s report B3 is neutral now and will not turn positive until unless Pakistan comes out from FATF grey list. Currently, Pakistan’s sovereignty is pledge due to inefficiencies and incompetency of the concerned authority in power. Moreover, it is said there is no land grant given during the fiscal year 2019-2020 however, Rs.420 million had been granted.

Another interesting contradiction made during the budget presentation is budget deficit amounting to 9.1% of the GDP whereas by the end of the speech the spokesperson said the budget deficit is 7% of GDP. Moreover, the government believed they have made two important contributions targeted on economic welfare and targeted subsidy, which includes Ehsass Program (Rs. 208 billion projects) although Pakistan did not even have 14% of inflation, likewise, Higher Education Commission (HEC) which budget has been raised from Rs.59 billion to Rs.64 billion although increase by Rs.5 billion is meaningless. Moreover, the Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) has been raised to Rs.650 billion that is the Federal government development program. Furthermore, it is also stated during the budget presentation that the ruling government has adopted Rs.1100 billion circular debt in the power sector. Although, the previous government has inherited Rs.480 billion circular and left with the valuation of Rs.1100 billion in 5 years tenure. However, the current government has increased circular debt by more than Rs.2400 billion in two years. Apart from this, ML1 (Karachi-Peshawar Railway Line) is an Rs.7 billion project however Rs.24 billion budget is allocated for it. The main highlight of the budget is the non-existence of the term China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and no budget or either fund allocation for CPEC and its related projects. Although the Ministry for Climate Change gets the Rs.6 billion budget allocation, Rs.20 billion is allocated to the Ministry of Science and Technology, Rs.40 billion for Railway ministry. However, there is no specific budget allocation for CPEC and its related projects. Also, there is approximately Rs.115 billion tax revenue collection from the Tobacco and Narcotics sector that is 60% of the value, and the remaining 40% is not collected due to tax evasion. The illegal tax mafia who were penalized by the existing government has been given huge relief by having duty based on grams of filters purchased rather than the cost price of filters. It might not be major tax relief for taxpayers but surely for tax-evaders. Lastly, the government has announced the imported clothes and its related products to be duty-free as clothes were smuggled. Nevertheless, this will ultimately cause disaster and shutdown of the local textile industry as the imported clothes will come in bulk and cheaper due to their mass-scale production.

To conclude, Pakistan is under hot waters and it requires the immediate and appropriate actions to be undertaken to get Pakistan out of the macro and microeconomic imbalances. If a similar situation persists then certainly the public at large will lose hope. The ruling government had established higher expectations that require to be fulfilled as the evidence of COVID19 changed the global power dynamics. The leaders of Pakistan need to be watchful and well prepare for the existing deep-rooted economic epidemic. It is a need of time to devise a vaccine for economic stability rather than running the testing and experimental trails as it is not the cure to root cause problems.

Budget 2020-2021: Reality Check (Part I)

Budget 2020-2021: Reality Check (Part I)

Hassnain Javed

June 25, 2020

Some facts and realities are certainly unpleasant to observe however, they exist in a way, which cannot be ignored. Pakistan’s economic budget is one such example garnished with top quality ingredients as expensive as saffron but the main ingredients of the budget lack the true essence. The budget presentation started with the 18th amendment violation as all the provinces have the right to decide the distribution and allocation of the given budget. Since Pakistan gain independence, for the first time, ever amount of development funds allocation for every province was announced during the budget presentation. The Federal government does not possess the right to intervene in the provincial budget distribution, prioritization of funds allocation as respective provinces can self-generate the funds with given resources when and where required. Especially after the 18th amendment, the provincial governments have the right to have foreign loans, introduce taxes, and can generate funds through other means such as by having public-private partnerships. It is a pity that the opposition leaders did not notice this violation and put forth the argument against it.

Moreover, the Federal government has set the target of approximately Rs.3800 billion tax revenue collection for the fiscal year 2020-21 whereas the tax revenue collection for the past fiscal year was approximately Rs.2900 billion, and this tax revenue collection was done in Corona free days. As Pakistan experienced, evident of COVID19 by the end of March 2020, that is the tenth month of the fiscal year 2019-2020. Pakistan was having a full spree of PSL matches by the mid of March 2020. It is important to understand, first, ten months’ data is used for presenting fiscal year data.

However, now the global dynamics have experienced a massive shift due to the COVID19 pandemic. In the given budget of Pakistan for 2020-21, it is said to be tax-free. I wonder how they will cope with the given target and fill the Rs.900 billion budget deficit. Now, what will happen it will lead to default the target. Although, the serving government has promised me the IMF to introduce Rs.900 billion new taxes to fill the gap. The question arises from where Rs.900 taxes will be generated. Thus, a counter-argument that arose upon deep analysis is the increase of given tax rates for instance the tax of cold beverages was initially 13% but now it has increased to 25%. Similarly, the tax on tobacco was initially 65% but now it has risen to 100%. Thus, the traditional formula of squeezing the given lemons in the market. Nevertheless, in the given circumstances it is not very desirable to fulfill the given target by increasing the given tax rates.

In the past three months, Pakistan’s unemployed workforce has also risen by 4 million. The agricultural growth has been presented as 2.8% but the real trick to show growth in this sector is by including livestock, which contributes almost 52% of the agriculture growth

Besides this, it seems to talk of billions and having a cart of snacks. According, to the State Bank official figures Pakistan’s economy, have undergone -0.5% negative growth second time since its independence that indicates the economy is shrinking. Pakistan experienced negative growth for the first time in 1951. At the time of independence, a lot many people have migrated from Punjab and Karachi to India whereas Parses and influential Hindu’s owned most of the properties and assets in Karachi and Sikhs were operating businesses in Punjab. Therefore, after the partition between India and Pakistan in the 1950s there was the establishment of resettlement commission. Although, there was the selling of properties in peanuts the proceedings were transferred to India and vice-versa. It explains that during a short period there was a flight of money from Pakistan reserves to India in specific that led to negative growth. Now, after 70 years, Pakistan has experienced negative growth and it should not be entitled to COVID19. Indeed, the worsening of the Pakistan economy has started much earlier as the private industrial sector has paid back more loans rather than issuing new loans. Here, one needs to pause and think, how, when, and where the money is transferred from Pakistan that has ultimately caused negative growth. It is much important to ponder on this matter as Pakistan has undergone much worse situations in the past for instance after nuclear experiments international sanctions were imposed besides that there was 1.45% growth. Therefore, it is a certain heavy amount of money transferred from Pakistan by the people sitting right and left to the power poles.

In the past three months, Pakistan’s unemployed workforce has also risen by 4 million. The agricultural growth has been presented as 2.8% but the real trick to show growth in this sector is by including livestock, which contributes almost 52% of the agriculture growth. However, real-time growth in agriculture is much less. According to estimates by the private sector, there is approximately 5% negative growth in the agriculture sector in the fiscal year 2019-2020. Moreover, there is no direct tax on the agriculture sector in specific although farmers do pay income taxes it is not considered as direct tax from the agriculture sector. Now, for the fiscal year 2020-2021, the government has set the target of 2.8% in the agriculture sector, 0.1% in the industrial sector that pays the tax, 0.7% growth in the manufacturing sector, -2.5% growth in the corporate sector that primarily provides the employment. It implies that the government has further planned to shut more factories in the fiscal year 2020-2021. Likewise, to present overall growth in the industrial sector government has introduced construction as a new component and given it a status of the industry. This newly introduce sector will show a growth of 3.4% that will overall present growth in the industrial sector. It is an easy formula to create a lose-win situation indeed none less than hoodwinked.

Chinese Digital currency: Challenge vs Opportunity

Chinese Digital currency: Challenge vs Opportunity

Hassnain Javed

MAY 18, 2020

 

The outbreak of Covid19 has certainly turned the global dynamics and has given birth to new inventions, innovations, and most importantly restructuring from the institutional level to everyday lifestyles. The origin station of global shift China which is the second-largest world economy on a nominal basis in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and number one ranked in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) has launched its very own digital currency backed by the Chinese Central Bank. It is known as the electronic Renminbi (e-RMB) that can change the world finance forever. Thus, it is required to know the basics of the Chinese currency, reasons behind launching the e-RMB, technical aspects of e-RMB, China’s monetary system, and e-RMB, analyze how this digital currency will influence the financial dynamics across the globe and how it has threatened the US dollar.

Renminbi means the “People’s Money”, official currency of China that acts as a medium of exchange but the Yuan is the unit of account of the country’s economic and financial system. From the past 40 years, China has put much work and efforts on achieving Den Xiaoping vision for globalization and has successfully achieved the trade globalization the day they joined hands with World Trade Organization (WTO), economic globalization by launching the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) raised the world debt by providing loans and formed their equity, military, and geostrategic globalization by strengthening their People’s Liberalization Navy at multiple places. But Chinese markets are so far lacking behind the financial globalization as the communist ideology works opposite the authoritarian regime. It requires financial openness like in Pakistan in terms of stock markets, debt market, etc. for which China has imposed certain restrictions and without that, it is not possible to replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

Until and unless China does not achieve financial globalization they cannot fulfill their 2050 vision. Thus, it is of significance to review the Chinese digital currency in this aspect. Historically, the US exchange rate appreciates whereas Chinese currency depreciates against it. Now, why China depreciates the Yuan against the dollar to accelerate their respective export base. As the Chinese currency depreciates it becomes easier for other countries to buy at lower rates. Similarly, when Pakistan currency depreciates it acts as a catalyst for exporters, IT companies, and especially overseas Pakistanis.

We have to analyze how this digital currency will influence the financial dynamics across the globe and how it has threatened the US dollar

There are six key reasons why China has launched e-RMB. The foremost reason and long-run strategy by the Chinese economy are to replace the dollar to remove the danger bell of exclusion and sanctions. A sovereign digital currency provides a functional alternative to the dollar settlement system and blunts the impact of any sanctions or threats of exclusion both at a country and company level. In the global financial system, the former governor of China’s central bank said last year that the digital currency would eventually be integrated into China’s Belt on Road Initiative. China has been pushing to make the Yuan International but the US dollar still makes up about 60% of foreign exchange reserves worldwide in contrast the Chinese Yuan only makes up about 2%.

Secondly, China aims to achieve financial globalization as it may also facilitate integration into globally traded currency markets with a reduced risk of politically inspired disruption and security for traders. Thirdly, to achieve more control as cash transactions were offline and transaction data from existing payment platforms were scattered, the Central Bank of China was unable to monitor cash flow in real-time. The digital Yuan is issued and backed by the Chinese central bank it’s not decentralized and will not provide the same anonymity as other cryptocurrencies do. Therefore, it is not an independent currency itself it’s just the digital version of the Chinese Renminbi there’s always a central authority in this digital Renminbi system that’s the Chinese communist regime. Therefore, it is of view that the new digital currency aims to replace Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies with a system controlled by government authorities. Due to its centralized structure, it would give the authorities more control over the everyday lives of Chinese people. The government can directly control each person’s wallet and decide how you can spend your own money, for example, let’s say the government paid someone a salary of 3,000RMB. If the needed Chinese government can restrict money making it so one can only spend 1000RMB on essentials. The system could also be used to suppress residents to restrict their access to necessities or in extreme cases seize personal property.

Fourthly, there is a rise of private money and there is a growing sense that Central banks globally should issue a digital version of cash to prevent the privatization of money by commercial entities and IT firms. For instance, cryptocurrency Bitcoin was introduced by private entities and Libra cryptocurrency by Mark Zuckerberg has already threatened the Central banks across the globe. Fifthly, there is an existing Chinese blockchain. In the past week, China has made its Blockchain-based Service Network (BSN) available for global commercial use. The BSN is led by the Chinese government-backed think tank State Information Center. It is a global infrastructure that claims to help projects create and run new blockchain applications for a lower cost. It also aims to accelerate the development of smart cities and the digital economy.

Finally, there is an impact of still raging novel coronavirus pandemic, and the higher health and hygiene awareness among the masses have also added the impetus to the trail of the digital currency. While there is a dramatic drop in the cash in circulation in Wuhan, China. After the initial ground zero of the viral outbreak, most retailers refuse to accept coins or paper money as a precaution against the highly contagious pathogen. This new technology allows the digital currency to be exchanged without an internet connection, and that it can be used to make contactless payments.

Besides this, there are certain technical aspects of e-RMB. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Digital Currency Research Institute does not want a blockchain-based approach as it is a decentralized and distributed digital ledger. PBoC’s role is centralized bookkeeping and administration. Moreover, the sovereign digital currency will be pegged to the national currency. The digital Yuan e-RMB will have the same legal tender status as cash. China has been working on the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) project for the digital version of the Yuan since 2014 and there is talk that the Central government hopes to launch a form of e-currency for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics that’s why a screenshot of an internal mobile application showing a digital banknote attracted so much attention on social media. For now, the digital Yuan is too theoretical but how would it affect our daily life, how digital currency saves China’s efforts to create a cashless society resemble what is happening elsewhere in the world.

The prevailing drive to go digital is one of the new normal. China is introducing a new digital currency backed by its central bank it is said to make payment easier and faster but an analyst warns it could be used to tighten the regime’s control of the Chinese people. China is testing a new digital currency with a pilot program and Chinese official claims to launch it May 2021. It is set to be the first digital currency used by a major economy after years of development the program began last month in four Chinese cities starting in May some government workers will receive part of their paychecks in the digital currency to use if they need to install an app the currency’s value is pegged to the Yuan, unlike other cryptocurrencies. The PBoC will be the sole issuer of the digital Yuan. Initially, it will be offering digital money to commercial banks and other operators. In contrast, the public would be able to convert money in their bank accounts to the digital version and make deposits via electronic wallets.

Now, the question is China alone at the outset of digital currency then certainly no. As many “Central Bank Digital Currencies” (CBDC) are being thought of across the world. The interest in CBDCs is due to factors like declining cash use and privately owned ‘stable coins’ such as Facebook’s Libra. The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) confirmed in April that it had received an application for a payment system license from the Geneva-based association governing Facebook’s planned cryptocurrency Libra. Similarly, the central banks of France and the UK are also both moving forward in respect of CBDCs. Now, will Pakistan also launch its e-Rupee backed by the State bank? Certainly, shortly, Pakistan will also have to introduce it.

Moreover, there is also a need to understand the China monetary system and e-RMB. In the existing system, there are forms of money supplies and savings like M0, M1, M2, M3, and M4. With e-RMB a part of the Chinese M0 supply will be digitalized. China’s M0 supply stood at 8.3 trillion yuan in 2019 but the annual increase in this has slackened to just 3-4% since 2012 and is impervious to the surges in credit and loans due to the introduction of WeChat Payments and AliPay. The PBoC Governor Yi Gang said all paper money issued and in circulation or deposits will not be affected. Although, the cash system needs to be reformed now. The velocity of the money in circulation will not be disrupted either.

To conclude, we have to analyze how this digital currency will influence the financial dynamics across the globe and how it has threatened the US dollar. Digital payment platforms are already widespread in China, namely Alipay, owned by Alibaba’s Ant Financial and WeChat Pay owned by Tencent but they do not replace the existing currency. With PBoC’s backing, the e-RMB will gain traction fast and give the duopoly of Alipay and Wechat pay tough competition. PBoC has already clarified that transactions facilitated by these platforms fall in the category of M1 and M2 and would not be affected when part of the nation’s MO supply is digitalized. The PBoC is starting trails in Shenzhen, Suzhou, Chengdu, and Xiong’an, a new national development zone on the outskirts of Beijing. The pilot scheme will be expanded to cover high-denomination banknotes. McDonald’s, Starbucks, and Subway were among the 19 mass consumption brands and retailers participating in the trail. A nationwide rollout is expected in two to three years when the PBoC aims to reduce the amount of hard cash it needs to prints. Likewise, ATMs and counters at the bank will become redundant.

The upcoming digital Yuan will be “tokenized” money, fully backed by the Central bank of the world’s second-largest economy. Its value draws from the Chinese state’s ability to impose taxes in perpetuity. Other nationals are bound to follow soon. The token will be a private blockchain, a peer-to-peer network for sharing information, and validating transactions, with the People’s Bank of China in control of who gets to participate. To begin with, the currency will be supplied via the banking system and replace some parts of physical cash. It will not be hard cash, given the ubiquitous presence of Chinese QR-code based digital wallets such as Alipay and WeChat Pay. Indeed, it will start small, but the digital yuan can disrupt both the traditional banking and the post-Bretton Woods system of floating exchange rates that the world has lived with since 1973. For China, blockchain and the Yuan digital currency are a national strategic priority almost at the level of the internet.

 

Monk, media, and monarchy!

Monk, media, and monarchy!

Hassnain Javed

MAY 4, 2020

 

 

“All the world’s a stage, and all the men and women merely players. They have their exits and their entrances, and one man in his time plays many part” —(William Shakespeare)

William Shakespeare rightly explained the human phenomena and their respective interchangeable, multidimensional roles. In the prevalent circumstances, Pakistan is experiencing the trichotomy between Monk (Mullah’s), Media (All forms of media, print, electronic and social) and Monarchy (State and Governance Structure). Are they the victims, persecutors, or rescuers? The key roles are not yet clearly defined in the global pandemic and domestically drama triangle.

The trichotomy defines themselves as victims in some instances or becomes persecutors. As Monks (Mullah’s) are holding massive gatherings when their rights and opinion is not given due importance. Each monk has its way of thinking and interpretation from the Holy doctrine so does their opinion varies. For instance, despite following the same Holy book there is practicing of both Popalzai doctrine and Mufti Muneeb Ur Rehman doctrine on Eid festival announcement every year. The Eid announcement should be unanimous decision nationwide but different doctrines made it a completely different story. On the other hand, media becomes the victim by carrying a black ribbon when media is under attack and their opinions suffered atrocities at the end of persecutors. The situation is no different for the monarchy as every elected ruling government becomes a victim of previous government incapable decisions, corruption, and worse economic and financial position handed over to them. It explains the mechanism of interchangeability between the three constructs.

Monk, media, and monarchy all have to come out of the persecutor and victim role and take the responsibility of rescuer as the main pillars of the economy. The nation will collapse if a similar situation persists

In recent global Covid19 pandemic, initially, monks were portrayed as the persecutors by not adhering to scientific findings despite the Holy book encapsulating all the scientific secrets and truth at the diverse spectrum that enables humans to take advantage and repercussion in every walk of life. It is observed that some of the monks were misguiding their followers for not adhering to the idea of social distancing for preventive measures and considering the scientific measures as obsolete and holding massive gatherings. Although, the Holy book (Quran) provides the scientific methodologies and reasoning for the major aspect of humans and nature whereas the beloved Prophet Muhammad (SAW) teachings and way of life add a further explanation on the given teachings. However, due to multiple monks and their respective dogmatism and doctrines (such as Qadri beliefs, Ghamdi beliefs, Tariq Jamil beliefs, Israr’s belief, etc.) today the Islamic beliefs and religion are unable to play their role as Masaya (Rescuer). Although it is practiced previously by great Islamic philosophers such as Al-Masudi (the pioneer of historical geography), Al-Kindi (pioneer of environmental sciences), Al-Biruni (pioneer of reaction time), Averroes (pioneer of Parkinson’s disease), Ibn E Arabi (the science of divine knowledge),Ibn E Khuldun, Jabir ibn Hayyan (father of chemistry), Ibn Rushd, etc. At the outset of the present pandemic, most of the monks are trying to cover themselves from the label of persecutors and falling apart as victims. Although, this is time to follow the historic footsteps of Islamic philosophers and contribute to innovative inventions amid Covid19 along with disseminating the knowledge that helps educate their illiterate followers.

The very moment and circumstances are not to blame each other play interchangeable roles. Either all the three respective roles, portray themselves as victims or in a certain situation, they slogan as persecutor but none of them in the prevalent pandemic taken the lead as a rescuer. We are living in the era of artificial intelligence where bioengineering, global warming, cyber warfare, and most recently bio warfares have taken the lead roles. Therefore, it is important to identify the grass root problems and channelize how monk, media, and monarchy can effectively play their respective designated roles to resolve the major challenges that erupted in the contemporary world. For this purpose, we need to distinguish between three types of problems that include technical problems, policy problems, and identity problems.

In the case of Pakistan technical problems defines the agreement of China Pakistan Economic Corridor with a lack of expert technical staff to effectively execute the project during the stated timeframe. Pakistan has taken in many such initiatives but unfortunately, it fails to realize to win the marathon it is important that its players are well equipped and eligible. A toddler, who is in the crawling phase, should not be accepted to run and compete for the champions in friction of seconds. It is good to put yourself in challenging tasks but it requires the essential ingredients of passion and clear purpose, which translate into desired performance.

In contrast, policy problems are reform structuring. Pakistan is launching different policies for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), agricultural farmers and Kamyab Naujawan Schemes, etc. but it is important to understand how these policies and programs will become effective for that supportive organs are required to actualize the real motive. For instance, China has established state-owned enterprises (SOEs) but before that, they educate their society on the significance of SOEs, the technical procedures involved to operate and get the benefit of SOEs policies. Moreover, in the wake of Covid19 they didn’t lose hope, and in a brief time with well-functioning supporting organs they are if not fully at least partially recovered and have started moving again whereas the case is opposite in Pakistan where most of its supporting organs are either malnourished or either on ventilators. Pakistan needs to focus on policy problems that are optimistic and realistic and holds the bitter truth and grey realities of its economy at hand. The major concern for the Pakistan monarchy should be dealing in the post Covid19 world when there will be a massive paradigm shift and world operating with new dynamics.

Besides this, identity problems indeed Pakistan is surfaced with identity crises, we, as a nation is not united there are major inter-provincial conflicts. The common Pakistani national desire to have its luxurious apartment amid the scenic and refreshing breeze of Switzerland, high-class well-functioning CEO office in the Wall Street, United States, five-star pilgrimage packages for performing prayers and the final coffin to buried in Jannat ul Baqi (Medinah) thus no affiliation with motherland Pakistan. They did not agree with idea of be Pakistan and buy Pakistan. This explains the identity problems in our economy. The world economies have experienced success on the grounds of nationalism and unity and have experienced the downfall of their mighty empires due to weakening fundamentals.

To conclude, monk, media, and monarchy all have to come out of the persecutor and victim role and take the responsibility of rescuer as the main pillars of the economy. The nation will collapse if a similar situation persists. There is no longer time to waste indeed we as an individual launch the movement to act as rescuer and educate our fellows to act and behave as a Masaya. Lastly, I extend my tribute to Edhi Sahab how being a common person he laid his life as a Masaya for Pakistan keeping his self-interests aside.

Governance Structure And Covid19

Hassnain Javed

APRIL 27, 2020

 

In the present world humans, still have many big choices to make. Among the biggest challenge, these days is how to deal with the crisis either through nationalistic isolation by having each country competing with all the others for the scarce resources or whether they will deal with it through international solidarity and cooperation. Is it the clash of civilizations, nationalism, community, or religion? As every economy is coping with the current challenge according to its governance structure, even the world’s best economies with advanced technology have certainly collapsed in the current scenario.

It will shape not just the crisis but also the world for years to come. Early on the level of each country, each country has to choose whether it deals with the crisis in an authoritarian way by empowering some dictator or powerful authority or whether it deals with the crisis by empowering the citizens and teaching democratic checks and balances. The way decisions are being made today, whatever comes afterward, it is like coming to a party after the party is over and the only thing left to do is to wash the dishes. Every governance structure in their respective capacity and capabilities are handing out trillions of dollars and coping up with the changing job market and economic dynamics. Therefore, whoever enters in 2021 will find it very difficult to rewind the movie and try something else.

In present circumstances, the hierarchy of governance structure is questioned that explains the presence of democracy. Besides this, amid Covid19 there is mistrust among politicians, scientists, right now they are rarely being heard and listened in the manner that one thinks they probably should be. Based on the precedents and logical rational without trust, one cannot deal with their crisis effectively. In recent years, we had politicians deliberately undermine the trust in public authorities, in science, and the media. Apart from this, I think the good sign though is that at least when it comes to science and scientific authority we have seen that almost all over the world people have a hidden reservoir of deep trust in science, despite the recent years of attacks on science. For instance, Pakistan the government closed down the mosques. Churches all over the world are telling people to stay away from the church. Because the scientists said so.

Firstly, we can observe the mass surveillance entering and being adopted in democratic countries that previously resisted them. Secondly, we see the nature of surveillance changing from over the skin surveillance to under skin surveillance

When we move forward if we have to think about how this time will influence the way, we socially interact with each other going forward. However, as explained in my previous articles there is a world order in remaking. There could be big changes in the job market, in the university. Some universities move online, then this will create a completely different social atmosphere for the students. Nevertheless, the fundamentals of human nature will not change. For instance, the Black Death did not change human nature. In 1918, the influenza epidemic did not change human nature and Covid-19 will not change human nature.

If we have a glance at the maybe the last big epidemic, the AIDs epidemic that was in many ways much worse than what is happening now if you get coronavirus you have a very good chance of living. In the early 1980s, if you got AIDs you died. Actually, for the first time in history, we have everything needed to overcome this epidemic. Above all a good scientific understanding of what causes the disease and how to prevent it from spreading. During the Black Death, maybe the biggest problem was ignorance. People were dying in the millions, all around, and nobody had any idea why people were dying and what could be done about it. The medical faculty in Paris and the University of Paris, their best estimate was that this is something to do with the astrological position of the sun. Even a hundred years ago during the big 1918 influenza, the best scientists were working on it, and nobody discovered what was the actual violence causing the epidemic. Now it took us two weeks to identify the correct virus, and develop reliable tests. Therefore, we are really in a better position than at any time before. What we do not necessarily have is the political wisdom to make use of our immense power. Maybe the biggest problem of all is the lack of international cooperation and global solidarity. We should not be afraid of the virus. Indeed, we should be more concerned about the inner humanity coming out, how people are reacting to this crisis, not with solidarity but with hatred or grief.

Now nobody is taking the global responsibility and therefore so far we do not have a global plan of action, not in the field of health care and certainly not in the economic field. Many countries are looking just about their interest and competing with other countries for medical equipment. Traditionally the U.S. was the responsible adult, in a case like the Ebola epidemic or the 2008 financial crisis, they step forward to be the leader of humanity and in both cases managed to gather enough countries around it to prevent the worst outcome. Now the U.S. has undertaken this role as a global leader. Briefly explained they do not want this job. They care only about themselves. Besides, when you look at the actual response of the U.S. in its own house to the epidemic, it is worsening daily than almost any other country. Not just compared to China, but also compare it to South Korea, to New Zealand, even to Greece, Greece is also doing an amazing job in containing this epidemic. If Ii had to choose, say between China and the US, who should be leading the world now giving us a plan of action. I would choose China. In this hour of emergency, the effectiveness and futuristic approach of the Chinese governance structure has certainly set the benchmark for world order in remaking.

To conclude, it could be good but one has to be very careful about it. What is happening now, really a watershed in the history of surveillance? Firstly, we can observe the mass surveillance entering and being adopted in democratic countries that previously resisted them. Secondly, we see the nature of surveillance changing from over the skin surveillance to under skin surveillance. Over the skin surveillance is say the government or corporation watching, monitoring where you go, what you buy, what you watch on television. Under the skin, surveillance starts with monitoring your blood pressure, but ultimately it is about tagging your body and brain and knowing what you are feeling each movement, not just pain or coughing, but emotions as well. Interestingly, ten years in the future, fast forward, North Korea, citizens has to wear a biometric bracelet on their arm and have to watch a big speech by big leaders. Also, when they watch the speech, it will detect what is happening in their citizen’s body. They can smile and clap their hands but if they are angry actually, the device will configure it. Thus, in the future, one could have no control over what is happening in their body. So this is no longer science fiction, this is already within reach of present-day technology and the coronavirus epidemic can be the watershed event when government going under our skin becomes were accessible.

Pakistan’s unprecedented economic crisis could be an opportunity

Pakistan’s unprecedented economic crisis could be an opportunity

Hassnain Javed

APRIL 19, 2020

 

Pakistan’s economy is surrounded by a prolonged history of rapid economic lapses, energy crises, the Kashmir issue, security concerns and health crises alongside political polarization and poor governance structures.

The country’s economic situation both in the short and long term is parallel to a patient on a ventilator, using a metaphor fit for a global pandemic. It is clear that the country’s economic fronts will suffer irrecoverable damages and losses in a post-Covid world. According to official estimates, Pakistan’s economy will incur initial economic losses amounting to Rs1.3 trillion and according to the Planning Commission of Pakistan, the size of the country’s Rs44 trillion strong GDP will face expected disruptions at minimum 10 percent losses in the last quarter alone, amounting to Rs1.1 trillion.

It is not Pakistan alone that is experiencing economic shocks and both fiscal and monetary imbalances. Indeed, developed economies like the US, European nations, Japan and even China got caught in economic tailspins and incurred $2.7 trillion in lost output.

Meanwhile, Covid-19 has certainly made human civilization shift towards a new normal.

If the situation persists and the pandemic lasts longer, it is quite certain Pakistan’s economic fronts could collapse. By May 2019, the Pakistani Rupee had already experienced depreciation of 30 percent against the US dollar. There was also the addition of debt amounting to more than $13 billion. Furthermore, the inflation rate in Pakistan accelerated to 12.93 percent which set off alarm bells for more price hikes in the future despite the income levels of middle to lower income groups remaining constant or decreasing.

Pakistan is an agro-based economy and entails the potential not only to meet its national food requirements, but even those of neighboring countries. However the price rises of essential food items result in imbalances in supply and demand.

Apart from this, the inhumane move to revoke the special legal status of Indian-administered Kashmir by Prime Minister Narendra Modi last August has led to higher security concerns along the border and present a huge added cost to the government.

This catastrophic situation provides some much need push for the future, with an opportunity to set national priorities straight. Covid-19 ultimately demands of both developing and developed economies to work together, to have more effective healthcare systems and extensive medical research to counter the effects of such devastating pandemics in the future. 

Hassnain Javed

Pakistan continues to be on the grey-list of the Paris-based global terror financing watchdog, the FATF– an added economic worry. There is an investment crisis amid the pandemic, with most industries shut and a rising emphasis on lockdowns. According to Federal Bureau of Revenue estimates, the lockdown in Pakistan is going to incur major revenue losses. For instance, if the current situation lasts till June 2020, the tax losses could exceed Rs380 billion.

It seems Pakistan will also suffer from further negative trade imbalances. According to the Federal Secretary of Commerce, the export sector might experience economic losses between $2-4 billion as most export orders were cancelled and a majority of the country’s export sector is dependent on the textile industry, which in turn is dependent on China for basic capital good inputs.

The tourism sector too, which had just been kickstarted in Pakistan in a big way, has experienced losses as global tourism dropped by 3 percent.

However, this catastrophic situation provides some much need push for the future, with an opportunity to set national priorities straight. Covid-19 ultimately demands of both developing and developed economies to work together, to have more effective healthcare systems and extensive medical research to counter the effects of such devastating pandemics in the future.

Pakistan should take Canada as a role model and revitalize its existing industries by manufacturing medical supplies and relevant items to treat and protect Covid-19 patients and keep its economy moving forward to overcome economic losses. This is the right time to promote the “Made in Pakistan” vision, and catapult it into becoming a reality.

New world order in re-making!

New world order in re-making!

Hassnain Javed

MARCH 30, 2020

 

 

Managing the known was a general phenomenon and practicing field for the creatures of 21st century. Although, the past has always provided precedent of transitional and evolutionary transformational mechanism that sheds significance at two extremes either the success or failure. The futuristic approach and one’s smooth convergence to new normal and behavior is referred as success and those who stay bare-footed to catch-up with the evolutionary phases experienced failure at their fate. Indeed, success is the combination of preparation and luck which simultaneously bounced back the mental block there is but one rule hunt or be-hunted.

With the advent of insidious COVID 19 the planet, earth is temporarily shut for holistic maintenance and re-making. Moreover, human civilization requires inventing a new understanding of what it exactly means to be human. There is cooking of new diplomatic order with emergence of new recipe to support the new kind of political philosophy that ensures sustainability during the pandemic and assurance of rebuilding after it passes. The need of time is to build new global public health care systems that can reduce the risk of another pandemic and help save the human life. As soon as human species get adaptable to new taste buds there will be on pathway for defining a new phenomenon and philosophy of what it means to be human. The similar approach is adopted in aftermath of World War II in the wake of massive deaths, social disarray and economic collapse.

In the present world its Coronavirus whereas in the 12th Century was the Bronze Age collapse. Lessons from the past, indeed 3000 years back can help the residents of planet earth explore how to make through the end of world. At the peak of the Bronze Age, there was development of extremely complex and centralized civilizations across the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean. However, in just a span of 100 years there was hit by one another calamities and it took very long before the region engine started moving pace with advent of knowledge and power of writing. It was followed by series of disasters, which includes a widespread drought in the Mediterranean basin, and the unknown arrival of mysterious sea people. The Bronze Age societies were highly complexed and centralized where the kings or either the bureaucrats decide when, where and how to plant stuff. That was the main point that triggered me so much about our modern day society, which is repeating the same mistake of clashing with laws of nature.

In order to conclude, the new world order in remaking will definitely tame, train and facilitate the human civilization accordingly with some of the new features that were initially disproved but now form the new normal

Indeed, the mere reality survival of the fittest is coherently dependent on governing authorities and their reforms, governance, structure and policies working in the semi-perfect environment with the gazillion other exogenous factors to ensure the sustainability of global populace. Nevertheless, if this system is on the spinning wheel of disruption and took multiple roller coaster rides over a long period at diverse horizon it will ultimately result in collapse.

Managing the known was a general phenomenon and practicing field for the creatures of 21st century. Although, the past has always provided precedent of transitional and evolutionary transformational mechanism that sheds significance at two extremes either the success or failure. The futuristic approach and one’s smooth convergence to new normal and behavior is referred as success and those who stay bare-footed to catch-up with the evolutionary phases experienced failure at their fate. Indeed, success is the combination of preparation and luck which simultaneously bounced back the mental block there is but one rule hunt or be-hunted.

With the advent of insidious COVID 19 the planet, earth is temporarily shut for holistic maintenance and re-making. Moreover, human civilization requires inventing a new understanding of what it exactly means to be human. There is cooking of new diplomatic order with emergence of new recipe to support the new kind of political philosophy that ensures sustainability during the pandemic and assurance of rebuilding after it passes. The need of time is to build new global public health care systems that can reduce the risk of another pandemic and help save the human life. As soon as human species get adaptable to new taste buds there will be on pathway for defining a new phenomenon and philosophy of what it means to be human. The similar approach is adopted in aftermath of World War II in the wake of massive deaths, social disarray and economic collapse.

In the present world its Coronavirus whereas in the 12th Century was the Bronze Age collapse. Lessons from the past, indeed 3000 years back can help the residents of planet earth explore how to make through the end of world. At the peak of the Bronze Age, there was development of extremely complex and centralized civilizations across the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean. However, in just a span of 100 years there was hit by one another calamities and it took very long before the region engine started moving pace with advent of knowledge and power of writing. It was followed by series of disasters, which includes a widespread drought in the Mediterranean basin, and the unknown arrival of mysterious sea people. The Bronze Age societies were highly complexed and centralized where the kings or either the bureaucrats decide when, where and how to plant stuff. That was the main point that triggered me so much about our modern day society, which is repeating the same mistake of clashing with laws of nature.

In order to conclude, the new world order in remaking will definitely tame, train and facilitate the human civilization accordingly with some of the new features that were initially disproved but now form the new normal

Indeed, the mere reality survival of the fittest is coherently dependent on governing authorities and their reforms, governance, structure and policies working in the semi-perfect environment with the gazillion other exogenous factors to ensure the sustainability of global populace. Nevertheless, if this system is on the spinning wheel of disruption and took multiple roller coaster rides over a long period at diverse horizon it will ultimately result in collapse.

It is safe to consider ourselves living in the Silicon Age collapse. The microchips the essential ingredient of Silicon age is so far unable to save the global from this pandemic crisis. Likewise, the Bronze based technology was unable to save the formers from system collapse. The power of writing was very uninhibited by the Minoans which left them with no reason to either learn or teach the skill. Likewise, the complex civilization regained itself with the emergence of models that grew out of the post-Bronze age. The city-states remained but there was fall of empires and new emergence of new empires out of them hundreds of year later, which includes Athens, Sparta and Ionia that discovered the complex behavior of trade, patterns of information exchange and Phoenician alphabets, were among the new inventions.

Therefore, after the collapse of Silicon age managing the unknown is to prepare for unknown that is impossible to know now. However, the new world in remaking will call for diverse changes and emergence of new normal that is already in process of reorienting and challenging the modern way of living. Moreover, in the hour of present crisis there is also successful exploitation of available opportunities that translate into more erudite and flexible used of technology, less polarization, and the realization of the importance of the free good and outdoor luxuries.

In order to conclude, the new world order in remaking will definitely tame, train and facilitate the human civilization accordingly with some of the new features that were initially disproved but now form the new normal. The personal interaction becomes dangerous and the social distancing will holds the new normal behavior. The comfort of personal presence of others will be switched to more comfortable experience with others absence. The paradox of online communication will become the phenomena under the prevailing circumstances. Moreover, there is emergence of a new kind of patriotism, which will no longer be equated with armed forces, as the virus cannot be shoot. For instance, in the present circumstances amid Covid-19 front-liners are not the armed forces with ancillary weapons indeed they are doctors, nurses, pharmacist, paramedics, small business owners and employees.

Apart from this, there will be decline in polarization as the unusual shocks hit the global economy after the Covid-19 there is high potential to break the Americans fifty years of legacy of accelerating political and cultural polarization. Indeed these crises have moved the global towards national solidarity and functionality and more based on the President Xi’s ideology of community of common destiny as Covid-19 eventually emerges as the common enemy around the globe. It will also translate into a new civic federalism. Moreover, there will be a revival of faith in serious experts and their research it will no longer be over-looked. The pandemic will also marks the end of intimate association with market oriented society and hyper individualism for instance President Trump is trying to suspend the November election and many other important global events are either cancelled or postponed. With the end of Covid-19, the political paradigm shifts will make more investments in public goods especially health care services. There will be complete change in the religious worship. It is for the first time in history, when all faiths have undergone and still experiencing the daunting challenge of keeping faith alive. There will be exercising of new reforms that ensures plagues do drive change. Furthermore, the regulatory barriers to online tools and digitization will fall. There were creative invention of robots, virtual reality and artificial intelligence, which takes lead of new normal. There will be evolution of digitized health system. Lastly, the bitter truth is human created science is declining overtime but it reigns again with associating supremacy to laws of nature.

In brief, learning from past experiences, promoting creative destruction in present and optimistic to cope up and prepare for new phenomena, new circumstances, new normal, new behavior, new laws and new power poles and pivot is the perfect recipe for successful lead of new order in re-making.

Covid-19: The Hidden Few

Hassnain Javed

MARCH 30, 2020

 

 

Since the start of year 2020, the most buzzword that has run shivers down the spine is COVID-19. Coronavirus has unveiled so many important things, which refer to either the traditional civilization tool or emergence of new civilization. This is the tool to gauge a new nation with effected and non-effected crowd. In my previous articles, I have already provided detail synopsis on the history of this virus. Today, I am going to relate the present day world order with the theory proposed by Samuel Huntington, which had already surpassed the clash of civilization on the grounds of religion. The religion, which formed the perspective and successfully has created the dynamic shift by creating divides, divergence, disagreements and road paved to unknown dimensions for any respective religion among the global society as a whole. Although, those nations who took the religion flag as queen symbolic to peace promotion have checkmate thesocietal conflicts.Therefore, war on religion chapter, hatred on the basis of religion, linguistic, caste, creed and color differences have rightly covered their respective journey from theoretical foundation to its practical implications is done and over.

In the present world, all the clashes have emerged the maximum utilization, efficiency, productivity and projection of hidden few economies. In the new world order, the clash of civilization is among the vital few or either hidden few. Now, what exactly is vital few? In order to understand this phenomenon lets recall the sprouting of information technology industry that germinated the seeds of artificial intelligence, cloud computing and digitization which all translated into the frequent and accessible usage of internet of things. We as a human are actually tamed, trained and facilitated according to an individual intellect, innate ability and circumstances.

Moreover, the 18th- 19th century was marked as the era of industrialization where there is rapid establishment of industries among the both developed and developing economies but the ones who benefit the most are the hidden few those who actually took every measure to well exploit the opportunities for their respective interests. In addition, as the economy stepped into 19th-20th century there was adaption of technology followed by the Great Depression and later the World War II and Cold war. Likewise, in the 21st century there is more advancement of technologies where digitization and Internet of Things (IoT) classified as the new phenomena.

The above-discussed chain of thoughts provided us much food of thought why such interface actually came to existence. The human creation wanted to promote peace and resolve the conflicts based on discussion and improved inter-regional and global connectivity. The leading super power has transmitted the technology into world, which led the key players to counter and protect them with more advancement in technology. It is fair to say that the war is among the hidden few. The one who is going to manage this global event in a more subtle manner will succeed.

It is fair to say that the war is among the hidden few. The one who is going to manage this global event in a more subtle manner will succeed

Based on the Huntington theory we have observed the clash of civilizations based on religion. Although, in contemporary times the clash of civilizations is on bio-warfare and over the era of technology. Based on the blessings of technology, human-to-human connectivity is curtailed and there is rightful acquisition of social distancing ideology. The planet earth came into existence for human creation but it is certainly shut due to the virus. However, China being the representative of third world country will emerge as ray of sunshine to its strong allies based on strategic, geo-economics and defense point of view. This global event will come to end eventually and one of the hidden few would be crowned as the new supreme world order. The present global event and its consequences are beyond an ordinary human imagination. It is somehow alarming bell as off the political and economic dynamic changes after the 9/11 in US. Likewise, the COVID-19 originating from Wuhan, China will spread its effects globally.

As the representative of third world economy, we have to ponder upon various aspects to tactfully upfront all of the preventive and curative measures. Pakistan as a nation is not united and lacks the basic ingredient of awareness in the masses therefore every individual should play their respective part to fight this pandemic.As the Covid-19 although planted virus has become the global event.In order to conclude, I put forth some questions for the readers, which includes 1), Does the clash of civilizations on bio-weapons a new phenomenon? How the key players have devised their victory strategies? Does end of COVID-19 a myth or reality? Do you think will be persistence of long-term micro and macro-economic instability across the globe? Is the COVID-19 vacancies invented and how will be key supplier? Does COVID-19 a paradigm shift for new world order?