Governance Structure And Covid19

Hassnain Javed

APRIL 27, 2020

 

In the present world humans, still have many big choices to make. Among the biggest challenge, these days is how to deal with the crisis either through nationalistic isolation by having each country competing with all the others for the scarce resources or whether they will deal with it through international solidarity and cooperation. Is it the clash of civilizations, nationalism, community, or religion? As every economy is coping with the current challenge according to its governance structure, even the world’s best economies with advanced technology have certainly collapsed in the current scenario.

It will shape not just the crisis but also the world for years to come. Early on the level of each country, each country has to choose whether it deals with the crisis in an authoritarian way by empowering some dictator or powerful authority or whether it deals with the crisis by empowering the citizens and teaching democratic checks and balances. The way decisions are being made today, whatever comes afterward, it is like coming to a party after the party is over and the only thing left to do is to wash the dishes. Every governance structure in their respective capacity and capabilities are handing out trillions of dollars and coping up with the changing job market and economic dynamics. Therefore, whoever enters in 2021 will find it very difficult to rewind the movie and try something else.

In present circumstances, the hierarchy of governance structure is questioned that explains the presence of democracy. Besides this, amid Covid19 there is mistrust among politicians, scientists, right now they are rarely being heard and listened in the manner that one thinks they probably should be. Based on the precedents and logical rational without trust, one cannot deal with their crisis effectively. In recent years, we had politicians deliberately undermine the trust in public authorities, in science, and the media. Apart from this, I think the good sign though is that at least when it comes to science and scientific authority we have seen that almost all over the world people have a hidden reservoir of deep trust in science, despite the recent years of attacks on science. For instance, Pakistan the government closed down the mosques. Churches all over the world are telling people to stay away from the church. Because the scientists said so.

Firstly, we can observe the mass surveillance entering and being adopted in democratic countries that previously resisted them. Secondly, we see the nature of surveillance changing from over the skin surveillance to under skin surveillance

When we move forward if we have to think about how this time will influence the way, we socially interact with each other going forward. However, as explained in my previous articles there is a world order in remaking. There could be big changes in the job market, in the university. Some universities move online, then this will create a completely different social atmosphere for the students. Nevertheless, the fundamentals of human nature will not change. For instance, the Black Death did not change human nature. In 1918, the influenza epidemic did not change human nature and Covid-19 will not change human nature.

If we have a glance at the maybe the last big epidemic, the AIDs epidemic that was in many ways much worse than what is happening now if you get coronavirus you have a very good chance of living. In the early 1980s, if you got AIDs you died. Actually, for the first time in history, we have everything needed to overcome this epidemic. Above all a good scientific understanding of what causes the disease and how to prevent it from spreading. During the Black Death, maybe the biggest problem was ignorance. People were dying in the millions, all around, and nobody had any idea why people were dying and what could be done about it. The medical faculty in Paris and the University of Paris, their best estimate was that this is something to do with the astrological position of the sun. Even a hundred years ago during the big 1918 influenza, the best scientists were working on it, and nobody discovered what was the actual violence causing the epidemic. Now it took us two weeks to identify the correct virus, and develop reliable tests. Therefore, we are really in a better position than at any time before. What we do not necessarily have is the political wisdom to make use of our immense power. Maybe the biggest problem of all is the lack of international cooperation and global solidarity. We should not be afraid of the virus. Indeed, we should be more concerned about the inner humanity coming out, how people are reacting to this crisis, not with solidarity but with hatred or grief.

Now nobody is taking the global responsibility and therefore so far we do not have a global plan of action, not in the field of health care and certainly not in the economic field. Many countries are looking just about their interest and competing with other countries for medical equipment. Traditionally the U.S. was the responsible adult, in a case like the Ebola epidemic or the 2008 financial crisis, they step forward to be the leader of humanity and in both cases managed to gather enough countries around it to prevent the worst outcome. Now the U.S. has undertaken this role as a global leader. Briefly explained they do not want this job. They care only about themselves. Besides, when you look at the actual response of the U.S. in its own house to the epidemic, it is worsening daily than almost any other country. Not just compared to China, but also compare it to South Korea, to New Zealand, even to Greece, Greece is also doing an amazing job in containing this epidemic. If Ii had to choose, say between China and the US, who should be leading the world now giving us a plan of action. I would choose China. In this hour of emergency, the effectiveness and futuristic approach of the Chinese governance structure has certainly set the benchmark for world order in remaking.

To conclude, it could be good but one has to be very careful about it. What is happening now, really a watershed in the history of surveillance? Firstly, we can observe the mass surveillance entering and being adopted in democratic countries that previously resisted them. Secondly, we see the nature of surveillance changing from over the skin surveillance to under skin surveillance. Over the skin surveillance is say the government or corporation watching, monitoring where you go, what you buy, what you watch on television. Under the skin, surveillance starts with monitoring your blood pressure, but ultimately it is about tagging your body and brain and knowing what you are feeling each movement, not just pain or coughing, but emotions as well. Interestingly, ten years in the future, fast forward, North Korea, citizens has to wear a biometric bracelet on their arm and have to watch a big speech by big leaders. Also, when they watch the speech, it will detect what is happening in their citizen’s body. They can smile and clap their hands but if they are angry actually, the device will configure it. Thus, in the future, one could have no control over what is happening in their body. So this is no longer science fiction, this is already within reach of present-day technology and the coronavirus epidemic can be the watershed event when government going under our skin becomes were accessible.

Pakistan’s unprecedented economic crisis could be an opportunity

Pakistan’s unprecedented economic crisis could be an opportunity

Hassnain Javed

APRIL 19, 2020

 

Pakistan’s economy is surrounded by a prolonged history of rapid economic lapses, energy crises, the Kashmir issue, security concerns and health crises alongside political polarization and poor governance structures.

The country’s economic situation both in the short and long term is parallel to a patient on a ventilator, using a metaphor fit for a global pandemic. It is clear that the country’s economic fronts will suffer irrecoverable damages and losses in a post-Covid world. According to official estimates, Pakistan’s economy will incur initial economic losses amounting to Rs1.3 trillion and according to the Planning Commission of Pakistan, the size of the country’s Rs44 trillion strong GDP will face expected disruptions at minimum 10 percent losses in the last quarter alone, amounting to Rs1.1 trillion.

It is not Pakistan alone that is experiencing economic shocks and both fiscal and monetary imbalances. Indeed, developed economies like the US, European nations, Japan and even China got caught in economic tailspins and incurred $2.7 trillion in lost output.

Meanwhile, Covid-19 has certainly made human civilization shift towards a new normal.

If the situation persists and the pandemic lasts longer, it is quite certain Pakistan’s economic fronts could collapse. By May 2019, the Pakistani Rupee had already experienced depreciation of 30 percent against the US dollar. There was also the addition of debt amounting to more than $13 billion. Furthermore, the inflation rate in Pakistan accelerated to 12.93 percent which set off alarm bells for more price hikes in the future despite the income levels of middle to lower income groups remaining constant or decreasing.

Pakistan is an agro-based economy and entails the potential not only to meet its national food requirements, but even those of neighboring countries. However the price rises of essential food items result in imbalances in supply and demand.

Apart from this, the inhumane move to revoke the special legal status of Indian-administered Kashmir by Prime Minister Narendra Modi last August has led to higher security concerns along the border and present a huge added cost to the government.

This catastrophic situation provides some much need push for the future, with an opportunity to set national priorities straight. Covid-19 ultimately demands of both developing and developed economies to work together, to have more effective healthcare systems and extensive medical research to counter the effects of such devastating pandemics in the future. 

Hassnain Javed

Pakistan continues to be on the grey-list of the Paris-based global terror financing watchdog, the FATF– an added economic worry. There is an investment crisis amid the pandemic, with most industries shut and a rising emphasis on lockdowns. According to Federal Bureau of Revenue estimates, the lockdown in Pakistan is going to incur major revenue losses. For instance, if the current situation lasts till June 2020, the tax losses could exceed Rs380 billion.

It seems Pakistan will also suffer from further negative trade imbalances. According to the Federal Secretary of Commerce, the export sector might experience economic losses between $2-4 billion as most export orders were cancelled and a majority of the country’s export sector is dependent on the textile industry, which in turn is dependent on China for basic capital good inputs.

The tourism sector too, which had just been kickstarted in Pakistan in a big way, has experienced losses as global tourism dropped by 3 percent.

However, this catastrophic situation provides some much need push for the future, with an opportunity to set national priorities straight. Covid-19 ultimately demands of both developing and developed economies to work together, to have more effective healthcare systems and extensive medical research to counter the effects of such devastating pandemics in the future.

Pakistan should take Canada as a role model and revitalize its existing industries by manufacturing medical supplies and relevant items to treat and protect Covid-19 patients and keep its economy moving forward to overcome economic losses. This is the right time to promote the “Made in Pakistan” vision, and catapult it into becoming a reality.

New world order in re-making!

New world order in re-making!

Hassnain Javed

MARCH 30, 2020

 

 

Managing the known was a general phenomenon and practicing field for the creatures of 21st century. Although, the past has always provided precedent of transitional and evolutionary transformational mechanism that sheds significance at two extremes either the success or failure. The futuristic approach and one’s smooth convergence to new normal and behavior is referred as success and those who stay bare-footed to catch-up with the evolutionary phases experienced failure at their fate. Indeed, success is the combination of preparation and luck which simultaneously bounced back the mental block there is but one rule hunt or be-hunted.

With the advent of insidious COVID 19 the planet, earth is temporarily shut for holistic maintenance and re-making. Moreover, human civilization requires inventing a new understanding of what it exactly means to be human. There is cooking of new diplomatic order with emergence of new recipe to support the new kind of political philosophy that ensures sustainability during the pandemic and assurance of rebuilding after it passes. The need of time is to build new global public health care systems that can reduce the risk of another pandemic and help save the human life. As soon as human species get adaptable to new taste buds there will be on pathway for defining a new phenomenon and philosophy of what it means to be human. The similar approach is adopted in aftermath of World War II in the wake of massive deaths, social disarray and economic collapse.

In the present world its Coronavirus whereas in the 12th Century was the Bronze Age collapse. Lessons from the past, indeed 3000 years back can help the residents of planet earth explore how to make through the end of world. At the peak of the Bronze Age, there was development of extremely complex and centralized civilizations across the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean. However, in just a span of 100 years there was hit by one another calamities and it took very long before the region engine started moving pace with advent of knowledge and power of writing. It was followed by series of disasters, which includes a widespread drought in the Mediterranean basin, and the unknown arrival of mysterious sea people. The Bronze Age societies were highly complexed and centralized where the kings or either the bureaucrats decide when, where and how to plant stuff. That was the main point that triggered me so much about our modern day society, which is repeating the same mistake of clashing with laws of nature.

In order to conclude, the new world order in remaking will definitely tame, train and facilitate the human civilization accordingly with some of the new features that were initially disproved but now form the new normal

Indeed, the mere reality survival of the fittest is coherently dependent on governing authorities and their reforms, governance, structure and policies working in the semi-perfect environment with the gazillion other exogenous factors to ensure the sustainability of global populace. Nevertheless, if this system is on the spinning wheel of disruption and took multiple roller coaster rides over a long period at diverse horizon it will ultimately result in collapse.

Managing the known was a general phenomenon and practicing field for the creatures of 21st century. Although, the past has always provided precedent of transitional and evolutionary transformational mechanism that sheds significance at two extremes either the success or failure. The futuristic approach and one’s smooth convergence to new normal and behavior is referred as success and those who stay bare-footed to catch-up with the evolutionary phases experienced failure at their fate. Indeed, success is the combination of preparation and luck which simultaneously bounced back the mental block there is but one rule hunt or be-hunted.

With the advent of insidious COVID 19 the planet, earth is temporarily shut for holistic maintenance and re-making. Moreover, human civilization requires inventing a new understanding of what it exactly means to be human. There is cooking of new diplomatic order with emergence of new recipe to support the new kind of political philosophy that ensures sustainability during the pandemic and assurance of rebuilding after it passes. The need of time is to build new global public health care systems that can reduce the risk of another pandemic and help save the human life. As soon as human species get adaptable to new taste buds there will be on pathway for defining a new phenomenon and philosophy of what it means to be human. The similar approach is adopted in aftermath of World War II in the wake of massive deaths, social disarray and economic collapse.

In the present world its Coronavirus whereas in the 12th Century was the Bronze Age collapse. Lessons from the past, indeed 3000 years back can help the residents of planet earth explore how to make through the end of world. At the peak of the Bronze Age, there was development of extremely complex and centralized civilizations across the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean. However, in just a span of 100 years there was hit by one another calamities and it took very long before the region engine started moving pace with advent of knowledge and power of writing. It was followed by series of disasters, which includes a widespread drought in the Mediterranean basin, and the unknown arrival of mysterious sea people. The Bronze Age societies were highly complexed and centralized where the kings or either the bureaucrats decide when, where and how to plant stuff. That was the main point that triggered me so much about our modern day society, which is repeating the same mistake of clashing with laws of nature.

In order to conclude, the new world order in remaking will definitely tame, train and facilitate the human civilization accordingly with some of the new features that were initially disproved but now form the new normal

Indeed, the mere reality survival of the fittest is coherently dependent on governing authorities and their reforms, governance, structure and policies working in the semi-perfect environment with the gazillion other exogenous factors to ensure the sustainability of global populace. Nevertheless, if this system is on the spinning wheel of disruption and took multiple roller coaster rides over a long period at diverse horizon it will ultimately result in collapse.

It is safe to consider ourselves living in the Silicon Age collapse. The microchips the essential ingredient of Silicon age is so far unable to save the global from this pandemic crisis. Likewise, the Bronze based technology was unable to save the formers from system collapse. The power of writing was very uninhibited by the Minoans which left them with no reason to either learn or teach the skill. Likewise, the complex civilization regained itself with the emergence of models that grew out of the post-Bronze age. The city-states remained but there was fall of empires and new emergence of new empires out of them hundreds of year later, which includes Athens, Sparta and Ionia that discovered the complex behavior of trade, patterns of information exchange and Phoenician alphabets, were among the new inventions.

Therefore, after the collapse of Silicon age managing the unknown is to prepare for unknown that is impossible to know now. However, the new world in remaking will call for diverse changes and emergence of new normal that is already in process of reorienting and challenging the modern way of living. Moreover, in the hour of present crisis there is also successful exploitation of available opportunities that translate into more erudite and flexible used of technology, less polarization, and the realization of the importance of the free good and outdoor luxuries.

In order to conclude, the new world order in remaking will definitely tame, train and facilitate the human civilization accordingly with some of the new features that were initially disproved but now form the new normal. The personal interaction becomes dangerous and the social distancing will holds the new normal behavior. The comfort of personal presence of others will be switched to more comfortable experience with others absence. The paradox of online communication will become the phenomena under the prevailing circumstances. Moreover, there is emergence of a new kind of patriotism, which will no longer be equated with armed forces, as the virus cannot be shoot. For instance, in the present circumstances amid Covid-19 front-liners are not the armed forces with ancillary weapons indeed they are doctors, nurses, pharmacist, paramedics, small business owners and employees.

Apart from this, there will be decline in polarization as the unusual shocks hit the global economy after the Covid-19 there is high potential to break the Americans fifty years of legacy of accelerating political and cultural polarization. Indeed these crises have moved the global towards national solidarity and functionality and more based on the President Xi’s ideology of community of common destiny as Covid-19 eventually emerges as the common enemy around the globe. It will also translate into a new civic federalism. Moreover, there will be a revival of faith in serious experts and their research it will no longer be over-looked. The pandemic will also marks the end of intimate association with market oriented society and hyper individualism for instance President Trump is trying to suspend the November election and many other important global events are either cancelled or postponed. With the end of Covid-19, the political paradigm shifts will make more investments in public goods especially health care services. There will be complete change in the religious worship. It is for the first time in history, when all faiths have undergone and still experiencing the daunting challenge of keeping faith alive. There will be exercising of new reforms that ensures plagues do drive change. Furthermore, the regulatory barriers to online tools and digitization will fall. There were creative invention of robots, virtual reality and artificial intelligence, which takes lead of new normal. There will be evolution of digitized health system. Lastly, the bitter truth is human created science is declining overtime but it reigns again with associating supremacy to laws of nature.

In brief, learning from past experiences, promoting creative destruction in present and optimistic to cope up and prepare for new phenomena, new circumstances, new normal, new behavior, new laws and new power poles and pivot is the perfect recipe for successful lead of new order in re-making.