Covid-19: The Hidden Few

Hassnain Javed

MARCH 30, 2020

 

 

Since the start of year 2020, the most buzzword that has run shivers down the spine is COVID-19. Coronavirus has unveiled so many important things, which refer to either the traditional civilization tool or emergence of new civilization. This is the tool to gauge a new nation with effected and non-effected crowd. In my previous articles, I have already provided detail synopsis on the history of this virus. Today, I am going to relate the present day world order with the theory proposed by Samuel Huntington, which had already surpassed the clash of civilization on the grounds of religion. The religion, which formed the perspective and successfully has created the dynamic shift by creating divides, divergence, disagreements and road paved to unknown dimensions for any respective religion among the global society as a whole. Although, those nations who took the religion flag as queen symbolic to peace promotion have checkmate thesocietal conflicts.Therefore, war on religion chapter, hatred on the basis of religion, linguistic, caste, creed and color differences have rightly covered their respective journey from theoretical foundation to its practical implications is done and over.

In the present world, all the clashes have emerged the maximum utilization, efficiency, productivity and projection of hidden few economies. In the new world order, the clash of civilization is among the vital few or either hidden few. Now, what exactly is vital few? In order to understand this phenomenon lets recall the sprouting of information technology industry that germinated the seeds of artificial intelligence, cloud computing and digitization which all translated into the frequent and accessible usage of internet of things. We as a human are actually tamed, trained and facilitated according to an individual intellect, innate ability and circumstances.

Moreover, the 18th- 19th century was marked as the era of industrialization where there is rapid establishment of industries among the both developed and developing economies but the ones who benefit the most are the hidden few those who actually took every measure to well exploit the opportunities for their respective interests. In addition, as the economy stepped into 19th-20th century there was adaption of technology followed by the Great Depression and later the World War II and Cold war. Likewise, in the 21st century there is more advancement of technologies where digitization and Internet of Things (IoT) classified as the new phenomena.

The above-discussed chain of thoughts provided us much food of thought why such interface actually came to existence. The human creation wanted to promote peace and resolve the conflicts based on discussion and improved inter-regional and global connectivity. The leading super power has transmitted the technology into world, which led the key players to counter and protect them with more advancement in technology. It is fair to say that the war is among the hidden few. The one who is going to manage this global event in a more subtle manner will succeed.

It is fair to say that the war is among the hidden few. The one who is going to manage this global event in a more subtle manner will succeed

Based on the Huntington theory we have observed the clash of civilizations based on religion. Although, in contemporary times the clash of civilizations is on bio-warfare and over the era of technology. Based on the blessings of technology, human-to-human connectivity is curtailed and there is rightful acquisition of social distancing ideology. The planet earth came into existence for human creation but it is certainly shut due to the virus. However, China being the representative of third world country will emerge as ray of sunshine to its strong allies based on strategic, geo-economics and defense point of view. This global event will come to end eventually and one of the hidden few would be crowned as the new supreme world order. The present global event and its consequences are beyond an ordinary human imagination. It is somehow alarming bell as off the political and economic dynamic changes after the 9/11 in US. Likewise, the COVID-19 originating from Wuhan, China will spread its effects globally.

As the representative of third world economy, we have to ponder upon various aspects to tactfully upfront all of the preventive and curative measures. Pakistan as a nation is not united and lacks the basic ingredient of awareness in the masses therefore every individual should play their respective part to fight this pandemic.As the Covid-19 although planted virus has become the global event.In order to conclude, I put forth some questions for the readers, which includes 1), Does the clash of civilizations on bio-weapons a new phenomenon? How the key players have devised their victory strategies? Does end of COVID-19 a myth or reality? Do you think will be persistence of long-term micro and macro-economic instability across the globe? Is the COVID-19 vacancies invented and how will be key supplier? Does COVID-19 a paradigm shift for new world order?

Economic contagion via NCov-2019

Hassnain Javed

MARCH 8, 2020

China accounts for almost 1/5 of global GDP. Naturally, there is growing concerns of the Coronavirus 2019 impact on the global economy. There is much research in process to find out the extent and duration of the damage. As, I have discussed in my previous articles China has set an ambitious 6 percent GDP growth target for 2020. However, the coronavirus will make it hard to reach the goal. The virus is expected to have a bigger impact than the SARS outbreak in 2003, which have so far killed 800 people worldwide and has shaved almost one person off China’s growth. When compared with the SARS crisis the economic impact from the corona virus outbreak will be sharper and deeper. By the time, China’s economy has grown four times bigger since then making up almost 18 percent of the global economy and it is not just at China’s problem.

China has grown faster than any major economy to become the world’s second biggest by GDP. Now, China plays key part to provide range of global supply chains. The outbreak will have a knock-on effect worldwide. Especially for those countries that are more reliant on China feeling even more of an impact. The world biggest smartphone chipmaker call come cautioned that the outbreak was a causing significant uncertainty over demand for smartphones as well as the supplies and needed to produce them.

The travel and tourism industry is also among the most vulnerable. Nearly six million people from China visited South Korea last year. However, now data shows that the country could lose a large number of those tourists. Despite, the current situation the major businesses across China will gradually resume operations. Some believe in a V-shaped impact like orange crisis in other words sharp decline in economic activities in China followed by rapid recovery and a total impact on China relatively contained. Therefore, impact on the world economy will also be contained. A rebound after short sharp economic shock is possible under certain circumstances. Major businesses and factories across China need to resume operation under the Chinese government’s systemic economic policies and containment measures. Most importantly, the spread of the virus needs to stop.

China the engine of global trade has stalled and that means slow going for the global economy

Economic contagion, the blow from the coronavirus outbreak could push Pakistan’s economy into recession. As it ripples around the world hitting Airlines,carmakers, tech firms, retail and tourism. How is a disease where 99 percent of the confirmed cases are in mainland China causing such global disarray at the risk? As already discussed China’s economy is big much indeed bigger than when SARS hit China in 2003. At that, time mainland China was the world’s sixth largest economy andit is now the second biggest with nearly 20% of global activity. Its share of global growth is even higher about a third. As China has grown so, have its imports and exports. It now accounts for more than a tenth of global trade so the first thing is that more people are affected by this virus outbreak than they were around SARS. Moreover, the policy initiative taken by the Chinese authorities are quite aggressive and they imply that the Chinese economy has been closed for a long time, which in itself will result in a contract to the economy.Furthermore, it is going to spill over to the rest of the world because China plays an important role both in terms of its size of the global economy and in its trade linked with other countries as it move up in global supply chains. Another important way China’s shutdown will affect the world is through tourism. China is the world’s largest tourist with a hundred and fifty million travelers heading abroad each year. The Chinese are big shoppers when they are overseas. They spend almost three times as much as the average visitor to the UK. Therefore, Burberry and other global luxury goods groups will feel the abrupt halt in Chinese travel. Nevertheless, tourist attractions will feel the change to the Shakespeare Birthplace. According to the recent international statisticsvisitor, numbers are down by 15% in contrast to last year.

However, the more unpredictable impact is through China’s role as a supplier of parts to the world. In cars, China accounted for just one percent of global auto parts exports in 2003 but now provides eight percent. Its role in consumer electronics and electrical components is much larger prompting warnings from companies like Apple and Samsung. Wuhan where the virus started makes more than half the world’s NAND flash products a type of memory used in PCs and laptops that is already causing problems according to one Technology Company. They are already shortages in solid-state disk there is quite a significant level of price rises that has already happened. I mean prices have risen in excess of 25 percent just really in the last four weeks and they are continuing to rise. Now, there is a lot of lockdown on volume purchases. In solid-state disk, as well some manufacturers in the supply chain are limiting the number that you can actually buy. As well, as try to spread the stock out across the supply chain.

In order to conclude, we can see that things are getting worse now. The UK is less reliant on China than big Asian economies but there is concern.Global governments have already been in touch with some of the big business groups asking for information from their members.They are already seeing problems from coronavirus and which parts of their supply chain could be vulnerable.

Even once the virus is brought under control the economic fallout may linger. The cuts to air and sea cargo could mean capacity shortages and higher prices as factories start up again. China the engine of global trade has stalled and that means slow going for the global economy.

Lethal Cornavirus: A Bio-War Or Natural Plague Outbreak (Part ii)

Hassnain Javed

FEBRUARY 7, 2020

Infected and thousands have died. The US is not even quarantining or stopping Chinese flights or people coming in to the US from these areas. In other words, many have gotten through. It is likely already in India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and other countries and we are not even looking at those flights or people and what about the economic impact?

The Chinese economy is at a cross roads they are losing a trade war the parties losing control starting with Hong Kong the outbreak is a welcome opportunity to seize more properties and exercise more control. I cannot even imagine what the Chinese are thinking right now. Number one they have “lost face” with the entire world their entire markets for manufacturing, production and distribution are totally crushed. Two, there are probably wondering the “pearl harbor” that is happening right now and three, who is to blame for this and retaliate against.

Besides this, we’ve heard a lot about the different structure of the economy of the government in China versus United States specifically through this trade dispute that’s been going on certainly under President Trump as you look it is more authoritative. In contrast, I think China has command control structure they have a lot more control over their economy and their government is centralized in China. In such situation, is China in advantage when they have encountered an epidemic like this or could it be a disadvantage? Well I think it is clearly an advantage in terms of the notion of locking down sixty million people essentially four and a half percent of the population of the country in Hubei province. I believe it will be something very difficult for any Western democracy to easily entertain. I do think however that as far as the trade situation is concerned it will have short-term impacts.

It’s a level of aggravation that can be absorbed it is important to understand 2020 is the fifth year of the China five-year plan yeah and President Xi and his colleagues will no doubt want to do all they can to hit their numbers yeah in 2020

First, the Chinese central government is very preoccupied now with fixing this issue and thus any conversation regarding phase two trade deals with United States is not even remotely on the agenda at the moment. In contrast, if the Chinese economy does take a hit that is sustained then of course there is a further weakening effect to the economy. In addition, it puts China in the position of possibly needing a little bit more urgently a further removal of the tariffs of 15 percent. Tariffs that are still applied to around about 370 billion of Chinese exports to the US.

I would point out that in the case of SARS, back in 2002 too for the first reported case was in November of 2002 and the last reported case was in May of 2004. Of course, there was clear evidence that the problem had peaked long before that 18-month period concluded. However, I think note the notion that there will be a six-month period of partial disruption to the Chinese economy .It’s worth noting that at the same time if they have been successful in confining this to what amounts to 5% of the GDP of China in Hubei province. I think it’s a level of aggravation that can be absorbed it is important to understand 2020 is the fifth year of the China five-year plan yeah and President Xi and his colleagues will no doubt want to do all they can to hit their numbers yeah in 2020. Despite this coronavirus, the fiscal stimulus and monetary easing is conceivably a renegotiation of the tariffs.

I think the Davos crowed now considers run away global warming to be a dire threat to their future. Moreover, China dire threat to their hegemonic control release an engineered virus in the right place at right time. In addition, voila the bricks forming there on financial systems is their own kind of SWIFT their own internet, their own world trade crunches. This divides the world and this is a very healthy step out of a dark killing system. The Cabal losing control over their own casino fake-money-system, even that they possess the fastest computer systems in the world. It seems like deeply desperate sucking greedy to draw more and more wealth out of the world actually. “Let’s drop a virus (bomb) and for our chosen a clean vaccination patent. Wuahh! That is scary and that is why we look away from darkness instead to look and face it. The Government do not give two shakes of a fly’s arse about you or your loved ones, most likely the only one who does is yourself. Get prepared right now extreme isolation seems to be the best way to survive this. In a hadith has been mentioned in al-Bukhari’s al-Sahih on the authority of Yahya bin Yamar, according to which Ayesha, Mother of the Faithful, says that she asked the Holy Prophet about the epidemic of plague.

He said: “It was a scourge sent by Allah unto whom He willed. Now it has been made a blessing for the Muslims. A person who stays in the affected town, shows patience and believes that nothing will befall him except what Allah has ordained, will receive the same reward as a martyr”.